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There are just three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, and we’re starting to think about the 2025 draft, which begins on April 24 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the projected first-round draft order for all 32 teams using ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Each week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 20,000 times. Game probabilities are based primarily on the model’s team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team’s average draft position across the simulations.
Our FPI predictions still have the New York Giants picking No. 1 after Week 15, but how does the rest of the order stack up? Check out our full projections below, and check back every Tuesday for updates throughout the season.
1. New York Giants (2-12)
Average draft position: 2.8
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 37.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 88.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.9%
2. New England Patriots (3-11)
Average draft position: 3.1
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 23.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.7%
3. Carolina Panthers (3-11)
Average draft position: 3.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 85.0%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.1%
4. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
Average draft position: 4.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 64.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 98.0%
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
Average draft position: 5.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 6.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 59.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.8%
6. Tennessee Titans (3-11)
Average draft position: 5.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 3.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 51.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.3%
7. Cleveland Browns (3-11)
Average draft position: 5.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.4%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 49.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 99.0%
8. New York Jets (4-10)
Average draft position: 8.2
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: <0.1%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 88.8%
9. Chicago Bears (4-10)
Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 86.5%
10. New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 77.7%
11. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
Average draft position: 12.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.2%
12. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
Average draft position: 12.6
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 17.4%
13. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
Average draft position: 13.4
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 10.1%
14. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
Average draft position: 14.0
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 6.0%
15. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
Average draft position: 14.3
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 2.1%
16. Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
Average draft position: 17.1
17. Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Average draft position: 17.9
18. Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
Average draft position: 19.1
19. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
Average draft position: 20.6
20. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
Average draft position: 21.7
21. Washington Commanders (9-5)
Average draft position: 22.3
22. Denver Broncos (9-5)
Average draft position: 22.4
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Average draft position: 22.8
24. Houston Texans (9-5)
Average draft position: 24.0
25. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
Average draft position: 24.6
26. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Average draft position: 26.1
27. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
Average draft position: 26.4
28. Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
Average draft position: 26.8
29. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
Average draft position: 27.7
30. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
Average draft position: 28.0
31. Detroit Lions (12-2)
Average draft position: 28.8
32. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Average draft position: 29.0
