The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have met often in the postseason during the dual reigns of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. They are set to square off once again in the 2025 NFL playoffs with a trip to Super Bowl 59 on the line.
The Chiefs and Bills both won their way into the AFC championship game to set up the latest contest of their rivalry. Buffalo is seeking its first playoff win over Kansas City since the 1990s as Allen looks to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in his seven-year NFL career.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are taking aim at an unprecedented three-peat. They have won eight consecutive playoff games – tied for the most with the New England Patriots, who achieved the feat over a four-year span from 2001-05 – and will look to continue asserting their dominance over the Bills.
Can Allen and the Bills finally get over the hump, or will the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five seasons? Here’s what to expect as the AFC’s top two seeds fight for the right to play in Super Bowl 59.
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Chiefs vs. Bills odds
The Chiefs are slight favorites over the Bills in the AFC championship game, according to the BetMGM NFL odds. Not interested in this game? Check out expert picks and best bets for every NFL game this week.
- Spread: Chiefs (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Kansas City (-125); Buffalo (+105)
- Over/under: 48
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Chiefs vs. Bills history
The Chiefs and Bills have played 56 times during the history of their franchises. Buffalo has a slight advantage in the series, posting a 30-25-1 record in those contests, but Kansas City has a 4-2 record against the Bills in the postseason.
Buffalo and Kansas City met during the 2024 regular season. The Bills emerged from that tilt with a 30-21 win, as Allen and James Cook combined for three rushing touchdowns to deal the Chiefs their only loss of the season to date.
The meeting between the Bills and Chiefs will mark their fourth postseason matchup of the last five years. Kansas City won the previous three, with the most recent two meetings being decided by one score.
Buffalo last beat Kansas City in a playoff game during the 1993 NFL playoffs, which were played in 1994. Thurman Thomas ran for 186 yards and three touchdowns in the Bills’ 30-13 AFC championship game win.
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Chiefs vs. Bills matchups to watch
Here’s a look at the key matchups to watch in the Chiefs vs. Bills AFC championship game.
Travis Kelce vs. Bills linebackers
For the second consecutive year, Kelce appears to be breaking out in the postseason after a mid-tier regular season. He racked up a season-high 117 receiving yards against the Houston Texans and broke open often during the contest.
The Bills limited Kelce well in their first matchup, as he had just two catches for eight yards on four targets in that game. They need to repeat that feat to hold Mahomes in check, so the performance of linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard in space will be critical in this contest. Expect Sean McDermott to throw the kitchen sink at Kelce, but Milano and Bernard will have to be at their best in coverage to slow down Kansas City’s offense.
Josh Allen vs. Chiefs run defense
The Bills just ran for 147 yards against the Baltimore Ravens, who sported the NFL’s best run defense during the 2024 regular season. Now, they will face a Kansas City team that allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to running backs this year, so Allen will be tasked with carrying the Bills both on the ground and through the air.
Allen shouldn’t have too much trouble doing that. He led the Bills with 262 passing yards and 55 rushing yards in their early-season matchup with the Chiefs while avoiding being sacked. If he can continue to create tough yards on the ground, he may be able to slow down the impact of Kansas City’s top pass rushers Chris Jones and George Karlaftis as they deal with his scrambling ability.
If that happens, the Bills will be able to score more and should be positioned to fare well in the time of possession battle. That could make Allen’s legs Buffalo’s biggest key to victory.
Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco vs. Bills run defense
Buffalo’s run defense has had an up-and-down 2024 NFL season and has allowed an average of 144.8 rushing yards per game in its four losses this year. As such, it will be important for the Chiefs to find a way to move the ball consistently on the ground to take pressure off Mahomes and match what could be some long scoring drives for the Bills.
Will Kansas City be up to the task? Pacheco has averaged just 32.2 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry since returning from a broken leg. That may leave Hunt as Kansas City’s best rushing option in this game. He had 60 yards on 14 carries in the Chiefs’ Week 11 loss to the Bills; he will need to improve in this one to avoid allowing Buffalo to render Kansas City one-dimensional.
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Early preview, prediction for Chiefs vs. Bills
Both Allen and Lamar Jackson entered the 2025 postseason hoping to get over the hump and make it to their first Super Bowl. They may both have to wait until next year for a shot to make that happen.
While the Chiefs have had plenty of close calls during the 2024 NFL season, they still have just one loss on their resume. Their defense is one of the toughest units on which to score in the NFL, and per usual, Mahomes has developed better chemistry with his pass-catching weapons as the season has gone on.
Between that and Kelce seemingly saving his energy for Kansas City’s postseason run, the Chiefs offense has more juice than usual. That should allow them to improve upon their 21 points scored in their first matchup with the Bills, especially if they can avoid losing the turnover battle as they did in Week 11 (2-1).
Allen and the Bills will fight hard to make a game of this, but the Chiefs may be able to slow down Buffalo’s offense – which lacks a clear-cut No. 1 receiver – just enough to position themselves for a victory. With the game being played in Kansas City, that should give the Chiefs the edge needed to get to a third consecutive Super Bowl.
