The Denver Broncos entered the 2024 NFL season with relatively low expectations. They were set to start a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, so many presumed it would be a building year for the first-round pick in Sean Payton’s offense.
Instead, the Broncos emerged as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Their defense has been one of the league’s most cohesive units and Nix has steadily grown throughout his first NFL season.
The Broncos can lock up a playoff spot for the third consecutive week. Like before, the matter is entirely in their hands, but Denver could also backdoor its way into the postseason if a couple of NFL teams lose.
How can the Broncos make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their playoff chances entering Week 18.
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Broncos playoff chances
The Broncos have a 74% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 18, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That makes them the favorite to earn the AFC’s last playoff spot over the Miami Dolphins (19% chance) and Cincinnati Bengals (6% chance).
Broncos playoff odds
The Broncos are listed with -700 odds to make the postseason, per BetMGM Sportsbook. That gives Denver an implied probability of 87.5% to qualify for the playoffs, which is slightly more optimistic than The Athletic’s projections.
By comparison, the Dolphins have +650 odds to be the AFC’s No. 7 seed while the Bengals are viewed as a longshot with odds of +1600.
How can the Broncos make the playoffs?
The Broncos are in control of their path to the playoffs. They need one of the following scenarios to unfold:
- The Broncos win or tie against the Kansas City Chiefs;
- The Dolphins and Bengals to lose or tie their Week 18 matchups.
Denver can take care of business simply by beating Kansas City in Week 18. The Broncos are expected to have the advantage in that contest, as Andy Reid announced that the Chiefs are planning to rest their starters in Week 18, including star quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
As a result, Carson Wentz will start for the Chiefs. The No. 2 pick in the 2016 NFL draft has plenty of starting experience, but he is facing a tough Denver defense allowing the fifth-fewest points per game (19.4) in 2024. That should give the Broncos the edge.
If the Broncos do slip up, they can still make the postseason. They need both the Dolphins and Bengals not to win their matchups. Miami is facing a coin-toss game during which they will be without the services of Tua Tagovailoa (hip). Backup Tyler Huntley led the Dolphins to a victory over the Cleveland Browns. Still, the Jets will be a tougher matchup for them, especially with Aaron Rodgers potentially playing his final NFL game and chasing his 500th career touchdown pass.
The Bengals don’t have a cakewalk on Saturday night either. They are facing a Steelers team that is on a three-game losing streak but beat Cincinnati 44-38 in Week 13. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense continue to play at a high level, but this looks like another coin-flip game.
As mentioned, Denver won’t need to watch the scoreboard if it wins on Sunday. However, if Cincinnati wins on Saturday night, Denver will know it needs to win to make the NFL playoffs.
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Broncos potential playoff opponents
The Broncos can only be the No. 7 seed in the AFC if they make the NFL playoffs. That puts them on track to play the Buffalo Bills if they make the postseason. Buffalo locked up the No. 2 seed in the conference after its 40-14 win over the New York Jets in Week 17.
A Bills vs. Broncos matchup would feature the NFL’s second-best scoring team (Buffalo, 31.8 points per game) and the league’s fifth-best scoring defense (Denver, 19.4 points per game) in an intriguing strength-on-strength matchup. The result would likely depend on how Nix deals with Buffalo’s hostile and potentially freezing environment.
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NFL playoff picture Week 18
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
- Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners, No. 2 seed)*
- Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
- Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners, No. 4 seed)*
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
- Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
- Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)
In the hunt: Miami Dolphins (8-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-8).
NFC
In the hunt: Atlanta Falcons (8-8)
An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.
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