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Last week, two major events dominated Brazilian public discourse: the G20 summit, and the exposure of an assassination plot that targeted the country’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Taking place from November 18 to 19 in Rio de Janeiro, the latest summit of the G20 nations posed a challenge for Lula and his cabinet. They sought to balance Brazilian diplomatic goals of combating global poverty and climate change with the pressing geopolitical demands of the Global North concerning the escalating wars in Europe and the Middle East.
For all practical purposes, the outcome of the summit was a success for Lula’s diplomatic ambitions. Parties as varied as Argentina’s self-proclaimed “anarcho-capitalist” president Javier Milei and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reached an agreement over a “Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.”
At the same time, news broke about the investigation into Jair Bolsonaro’s possible coup attempt during the period leading up to Lula’s assumption of office in 2023. The report of the investigation not only established the planning of a coup, but also identified an assassination plot by Bolsonaro’s government against Lula, his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, and Alexandre de Moraes, president of the Superior Electoral Court at the time.
These revelations came in the middle of a congressional discussion concerning amnesty for those involved in the January 8 insurrection. They might prove to be the last straw that results in Bolsonaro’s arrest. Coming on the last day of a G20 Summit where dictators and strongmen were amply represented, the report will have major consequences for the struggle of Brazil’s democratic institutions against a return to authoritarianism.
Nearly two years into his term in office, Lula’s center-left administration has had to contend with one of the most conservative congresses in Brazilian history. While the president has a historic reputation for pragmatism and coalition-building skills, the current balance of forces has tested his ability to govern.
Lula’s center-left administration has had to contend with one of the most conservative congresses in Brazilian history.
Moves to address many key issues are being held up, whether by the Bolsonarist right wing or the mainstream centrão, the collection of centrist parties that want to extract greater concessions from the government before backing its policies. One point of contention for all sides of the aisle was the ongoing investigation into the January 8 insurrection.
In the week after Lula took office in January 2023, there was a growing encampment of protesters in the capital, Brasília. Bolsonaro’s rhetoric alleging that he was the victim of electoral fraud inspired them to protest against what they considered to be an illegal government. On January 8, these protesters broke through police barricades and invaded the presidential palace, the National Congress, and the Federal Supreme Court, defacing and vandalizing the buildings in an event eerily similar to occurrences in Washington two years earlier.
The government was quick to respond, removing the encampment, with thousands of those taking part arrested. An investigation found evidence that what appeared to have been gross negligence on the part of the authorities, allowing the mob through, was in reality part of a greater conspiracy by military and civilian officials, who sought first to prevent Lula from taking office and then to remove him when that effort failed.
Since then, an official investigation has been underway, attempting to determine the truth about the multiple parties involved in these plots. The question of what to do with those who took part has been a regular subject of discussion.
The so-called Amnesty Commission established this November aims to release those involved in the events of January 8 under a blanket amnesty. To many of those who support that goal, overwhelmingly coming from the Brazilian right, those arrested are “political prisoners” who have been illegally detained, and what happened on January 8 amounted to nothing more than a protest.
Last week’s revelations seem to have finished off the idea of an amnesty for those implicated in the events of January 8 for good.
For the Left, the release of those involved is unacceptable. Nevertheless, there was speculation that Lula’s government might engage in negotiations over the terms of such an arrangement, as the left-wing executive faces off against the conservative congress. In its most radical form, an amnesty might even overturn Bolsonaro’s bar on running for office in the future. This is an objective that the former president has been avidly pursuing in the hope of returning to the political spotlight as the cornerstone of the Brazilian far right.
Amid the amnesty discussions, a terrorist attack on the Plaza of the Three Powers in front of the Supreme Court shocked the nation. In a first for Brazil, a nation not accustomed to acts of terrorism, a man placed bombs against the statue of Justice, accidentally killing himself in the process.
Alexandre de Moraes, the former chief justice of the Electoral Superior Court, linked the attack directly to the demands for amnesty and repudiated the idea in strong terms: “An amnestied criminal is an unpunished criminal.” If that was not enough to stop the commission’s efforts, last week’s revelations seem to have finished off the idea of an amnesty for good.
Among the individuals formally indicted by the federal police were General Walter Braga Netto, Bolsonaro’s defense minister and running mate in the 2022 election, and the former president himself. The indictment charges Bolsonaro and a number of accomplices from his cabinet and personal circle as well as the army and navy with holding discussions about carrying out a coup.
The indictment charges Bolsonaro and a number of accomplices from his cabinet and personal circle with holding discussions about carrying out a coup.
Although they had some support from army officers, the plotters could not count upon the unified backing of the military, and nothing came of their plans before the elections. Following Bolsonaro’s defeat, the figures surrounding the outgoing president developed a greater sense of urgency about a coup to be mounted before Lula’s inauguration on January 1.
Among the many items discussed was the “Plano Punhal Verde Amarelo” (“Green Yellow Dagger Plan,” named after the colors of the Brazilian flag). This was the name that some of the plotters gave to their plans to murder their opponents. They discussed using poison or explosives to kill the president-elect.
The plot extended to an attempt to kidnap Alexandre de Moraes. On December 15, 2022, the plotters stalked the minister, acting under code names and using a WhatsApp group titled “Copa 2022” (in reference to the soccer World Cup). They only aborted the plan at the last minute because the Superior Court session ended earlier than predicted.
Lula commented on the revelations on November 21, expressing gratitude that he and Geraldo Alckmin were still alive and that the plot had failed. He took the opportunity to reiterate his hope of “returning Brazil to normalcy, to a democratic civility, knowing that we have political and ideological adversaries, but that in a civilized fashion one wins and one loses.”
The Left celebrated the subsequent indictment of Bolsonaro and a number of other individuals involved. On the Right, the general attitude has not been to deny the discussions of a coup — difficult if not impossible in view of the overwhelming evidence — but rather to claim that those discussions were not criminal.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son and one of his strongest supporters in Congress, has declared that “talking about killing is not a crime,” an attitude that seems to be widespread in Bolsonarist circles. However, the notion that a conspiracy is not a crime is not one that appears to be shared by the federal police, the Ministry of Justice and Public Security, or the Supreme Court.
For figures such as Lula and Justice Moraes, the preservation of democracy serves as their primary policy objective. The continued pursuit of justice against those involved in the plots is part of a wider institutional battle to reverse the backslide toward authoritarianism in Brazil, a nation where the memory of the old military dictatorship is ever present. The revelations show that the authoritarian right will push as far as it is allowed to, whether that means spreading disinformation or carrying out assassinations. There is no democratic institution it will respect.
The revelations show that the authoritarian right will push as far as it is allowed to, whether that means spreading disinformation or carrying out assassinations.
These events are not taking place in a vacuum. Bolsonaro’s last act as president in December 2022 was to flee to Florida. At the time, most people perceived this as being motivated by fear for his impending arrest, now that presidential immunity no longer protected him. Bolsonaro’s family has close ties to the far-right movement in the United States, not to mention direct business links with right-wing propagandists such as Donald Trump’s ally Steve Bannon.
When no arrest warrant was issued for Bolsonaro, he returned from his self-imposed exile. In February 2024, again fearing possible arrest, Bolsonaro secretly took refuge in the Hungarian embassy for two nights, hoping to be granted asylum by Hungarian prime minister Victor Orbán, with whom he had friendly relations while in office.
Lula’s attempt to return Brazil to a position of normalcy is far from over. Regardless of what might result from the indictment, the country remains highly polarized, with the lowest approval rating for a government headed by Lula since the “Mensalão” bribery scandal back in 2005.
As disorganized as it may be without Bolsonaro, the Brazilian right still has a lot of momentum. There are few politicians other than Lula who seem capable of preventing it from regaining power in the 2026 election. With respect for democracy and republican principles in such a fragile state, it is all more important to strengthen democratic institutions that are more powerful than any individual and that can weather an authoritarian storm.
Olavo Passos de Souza is a doctoral student in history at Stanford University.
