Canadians woke up Tuesday to an uncertain future, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he would resign and bring his near-decade in power to an end.
Trudeau’s announcement came just days into an election year and followed weeks of mounting pressure from within his own party to step down as he battled dire poll ratings partly driven by soaring inflation, rising immigration and his handling of President-elect Donald Trump.
“If I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option” in Canada’s next election, Trudeau, 53, told reporters in Ottawa.
His decision has triggered an urgent search within the Liberal party to identify a new candidate who can take on Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre has dominated in the polls and was last on 44% according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, compared with Trudeau — whose rating sits just above 20%.
The Trump factor
A key focus for whoever leads Canada next will be managing their country’s relationship with the incoming Trump administration.
After winning re-election in November, the president-elect vowed to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Canada and Mexico.
While Trudeau sought to appease Trump, visiting him at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, the incoming president has since repeatedly jabbed at the prime minister, suggesting making Canada the 51st state and reiterating the idea in response to Trudeau’s resignation.
Trudeau’s handling of Trump precipitated the final blow to his tenure, with the high-profile departure last month of his Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. In a scathing resignation letter, she accused Trudeau of failing to take seriously Trump’s threats to increase import tariffs on Canadian goods.
Freeland warned that Canada needed to take Trump’s plans “extremely seriously” and avoid “costly political gimmicks.”
In contrast to Trudeau, Poilievre — the former-Conservative minister’s biography touts him as a “life-long conservative” and “champion of a free market” — has sought to present himself as the candidate with the “strength and smarts to stand up for this country.”
In an interview with Canadian broadcaster CTV News last month, Poilievre said that his first message for the incoming president was “that first and foremost, Canada will never be the 51st state of the U.S.” — and Canada, he said, had a “very proud future ahead of us.”
Tari Ajadi, a politics professor at McGill University in Montreal, was less sure. He told NBC News that Poilievre has yet to produce a clear plan on how to tackle the Canada-U.S. relationship under Trump, adding that “I think Canada’s in for a rough ride.”
What happens now?
Even though Trudeau is quitting, Canadians will have to wait for months before they can head to the polls.
An election date has yet to be announced, and while the Canada Elections Act says it must be held on or before Oct. 20, Trudeau’s resignation means it’s likely that a vote will be called before then.
Before that can happen, the Liberal Party must find a candidate. Trudeau said he would remain at the party’s helm until his party colleagues have undertaken a “robust, nationwide, competitive process” to find his successor.
In the meantime, Trudeau said Canada’s governor general had accepted his request to prorogue Parliament, suspending proceedings without the dissolution of parliament, until March 24. Then, a confidence vote is expected to be held, with a no-confidence result triggering the next federal election.
That means the Liberal government will remain in power, but parliamentary activity will come to a halt.
Referring to his party’s lack of working majority and Canada’s legislative gridlock, Trudeau said Monday that “Parliament has been paralyzed for months after what has been the longest session of a minority Parliament in Canadian history.”
Who will replace Trudeau?
Trudeau, a former teacher who campaigned with the slogan “sunny ways,” took office in November 2015 and enjoyed high popularity ratings early in his leadership with the promise of liberal reforms, progressive tax policies and a focus on gender equality.
His initial appeal was also boosted by the legacy of his father, the charismatic but polarizing Pierre Trudeau, who was one of Canada’s longest-serving leaders.
But in recent years, Trudeau’s approval ratings plummeted from around 65% in September 2016 to around 22% in December, according to the nonprofit Angus Reid Institute.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and then-Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland in Ottawa in 2018. Patrick Doyle / AFP – Getty Images
According to figures from the Angus Reid Institute, former-journalist Freeland is the Liberal candidate most likely to beat Poilievre.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney is also a contender and the Conservatives have sensed that. They have long attacked Carney, with Poilievre dismissing him as “just like Justin.”
But regardless of who Trudeau’s successor is, “it’s hard to imagine anyone coming in who can hold onto the government in the next election,” Cornell University government professor Peter Loewen told NBC News.
Dominic LeBlanc, minister of finance and intergovernmental affairs and a longtime friend of Trudeau’s, and Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly are also potential candidates.
With Trudeau on his way out, the Liberal Party appears to be facing an existential crisis.
“Trudeau was a singular figure in Canadian politics,” Ajadi of McGill University said. “There’s not another Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.”
